Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Using Charting Application

Chart is a graphical representation of movements of the instrument's price in time.

The Streamster charting application allows you to analyze past behavior of certain instruments, which can significantly help in making trading decisions.

Reading a chart
In the top-right corner of the Charting window stands the Market Instrument ID and the Timescale. The x-axis refers to the date and time while the y-axis refers to the selected instrument price. Movement of the instrument's price can be displayed in various forms, like curve, bar chart and candlestick that spread left-to-right of the window.


Changing a style of a chart
  • To change the form how the instrument's price is displayed:
  • Right-click within the Charting window
  • On context menu click Style
  • Select one the offered styles, i.e. candle stick

Changing an instrument
To change the instrument displayed:
  • Right-click within the Charting window
  • On context menu click Instrument
  • Select one the offered instruments

Changing a range on the chart
Range displayed on the Charting window can be changed in two ways:

Changing the time interval displayed:
  • Right-click within the Charting window
  • On context menu click Timescale
  • Select one the offered intervals

Using the zoom:
  • Right-click within the Charting window
  • On context menu click Zoom
  • Select one the offered percentages

Working with "My Charts"
If you are using specific Instrument, Timescale etc. with specific indicators more often than others, Streamster may save your time to adjust the Charting windows to suit your needs.

Adding new chart layout
To add a new chart layout:
  • Choose Instrument, Timescale, Zoom, Style and Indicators
  • Right-click within the Charting window
  • On context menu click Save Chart...
  • Add name for the chart
  • Click OK

Choosing an existing chart
To choose a chart that was previously saved:
  • Right-click within the Charting window
  • On context menu click My Charts
  • Choose one of the existing chart layouts

Organizing "My Charts"
To organize existing charts:
  • Right-click within the Charting window
  • On context menu click My Charts
  • Click Organize...
  • You are able to Delete and / or Rename any of existing charts
  • When finished, click Close

Working with indicators
Streamster is offering a number of indicators to rise your trading to a higher level. You could easily combine indicators based on different mathematical models to get the best trading results.

Adding a new indicator
To add a new indicator on a Chart:
  • Right-click within the Charting window
  • On context menu click Indicators
  • Click on one of the indicators offered
  • On the left of the Charting window you are offered to change default settings for added indicator, link to find out more about it and to remove it immediately
  • Place cursor within the Charting window and click or wait for few seconds for Settings pane to hide.

Removing an indicator
To remove an indicator:
  • Click on the curve of the indicator you wish to remove
  • Settings pane opens on the left of the Charting window
  • Click Remove this indicator

Removing all indicators
To remove all indicators from a Chart:
  • Right-click within the Charting window
  • On context menu click Indicators then Remove Active Indicators

Editing settings of an indicator
To edit an indicator:
  • Click on the curve of the indicator you wish to edit
  • Settings pane opens on the left of the Charting window
  • Edit colors, periods etc. of an indicator
  • Place cursor within the Charting window and click or wait for few seconds for Settings pane to hide

Showing and hiding open positions
Streamster offers possibility to visually monitor OPEN positions. The positions are represented as a light square (yellow: LONG; blue: SHORT) on the chart. Clicking on the square displays a menu to Change... or Close... selected position.

To show or hide OPEN positions on a Chart:
  • Right-click within the Charting window
  • On context menu click Show positions

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Trading Techniques

Experienced traders will often say "trend is your friend" or "do not overtrade". What does it mean? The links below will lead you to pages where you can read more about basic trading guidelines, general information about the technical and fundamental analysis, and some simple ideas about risk management. These are just basics - you will need to read much more related literature to become a successful trader.

General Trading Guidelines
Plan your trade and trade your plan: You must have a trading plan to succeed. A trading plan should consist of a position, why you enter, stop loss point, profit taking level, plus a sound money management strategy. A good plan will remove all the emotions from your trades.

The trend is your friend: Do not buck the trend. When the market is bullish, go long. On the reverse, if the market is bearish, you short. Never go against the trend.

Focus on capital preservation: This is the most important step that you must take when you deal with your trading capital. You main goal is to preserve the capital. Do not trade more than 10% of your deposit in a single trade. For example, if your total deposit is $10,000, every trade should limit to $1000. If you don't do this, you'll be out of the market very soon.

Know when to cut loss: If a trade goes against you, sell it and let go. Do not hold on to a bad trade hoping that the price will go up. Most likely, you end up losing more money. Before you enter a trade, decide your stop loss price, a price where you must sell when the trade turns sour. It depends on your risk profile as of how much you should set for the stop loss.

Take profit when the trade is good: Before entering a trade decide how much profit you are willing to take. When a trade turns out to be good, take the profit. You can take profit all at one go, or take profit in stages. When you've recovered your trading cost, you have nothing to lose. Sit tight and watch the profit run.

Be emotionless: Two biggest emotions in trading: greed and fear. Do not let greed and fear influence your trade. Trading is a mechanical process and it's not for the emotional ones. As Dr. Alexander Elder said in his book "Trading For A Living", if you sit next to a successful trader and observe him or her, you might not be able to tell whether he or she is making or losing money. That's how emotionally stable a successful trader is.

Do not trade based on tips from other people: Trade only when you have done your own research. Be an informed trader.

Keep a trading journal: When you buy a market instrument, write down the reasons why you buy, and your feelings at that time. You do the same when you sell. Analyze and write down the mistakes you've made, as well as things that you've done right. By referring to your trading journal, you learn from your past mistakes. Improve on your mistakes, keep learning and keep improving.

When in doubt, stay out: When you have doubt and not sure where the market is going, stay on the sideline. Sometimes, doing nothing is the best thing to do.

Do not overtrade: Ideally you should have 3-5 positions at a time. No more than that. If you have too many positions, you tend to be out of control and make emotional decisions when there is a change in market. Do not trade for the sake of trading.

Technical Analysis
Technical analysis differs from fundamental analysis in that technical analysis is applied only to the price action of the market, ignoring fundamental factors. As fundamental data can often provide only a long-term or "delayed" forecast of market price movements, technical analysis has become the primary tool with which to successfully trade shorter-term price movements, and to set stop loss and profit targets.

Technical analysis consists primarily of a variety of technical studies, each of which can be interpreted to generate buy and sell decisions or to predict market direction.

Support and Resistance Levels
One use of technical analysis, apart from technical studies, is in deriving "support" and "resistance" levels. The concept here is that the market will tend to trade above its support levels and trade below its resistance levels. If a support or resistance level is broken, the market is then expected to follow through in that direction. These levels are determined by analyzing the chart and assessing where the market has encountered unbroken support or resistance in the past.

Popular Technical Analysis Tools
Moving Averages (MA): Indicators used to smooth price fluctuations and identify trends. The most basic type of moving average, the simple moving average, is the average of the past x bars ending with the current bar;

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Indicator that utilizes moving averages to identify possible trends and an oscillator to determine when a trend is overbought or oversold;

Bollinger Bands: Bands that are placed x moving average standard deviations above and below a simple MA line;

Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Indicator used to identify potential levels of support and resistance;

Directional Movement Index (DMI): A positive line (+DI) measuring buying and a negative line (-DI) measuring selling pressure;

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Momentum oscillator that is plotted on a vertical scale from 0 to 100;

Stochastics: Momentum oscillator that measure momentum by comparing the recent close to the absolute price range (high of the range minus the low of the range) over a period of x bars;

Trendlines: Straight line on a chart that connects consecutive tops or consecutive bottoms of prices and is utilized to identify levels of support and resistance;

Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis is the evaluation of non-visual information to evaluate trading activity and make trading decisions. Whereas technical analysts utilize charts and mathematical indicators to quantify price activity, fundamental analysts utilize market news and market forecasts to qualify price activity.

There are numerous market events that move financial markets every week. Some affect every market instrument while others affect specific instruments. If the outcome of a market event has been fully discounted by the market, traders will not notice any discernible impact on their charts. If the outcome of a market event has not been fully discounted by the market, the result is either price appreciation or price depreciation and traders will see this activity on their charts.

Every week, there are fundamentally-important market events that are scheduled in every country at specific times. Similarly, there are fundamentally-important market events that may not be scheduled for specific times. Some countries (Germany, for instance) often do not schedule market events for specific times. The outcome of market events is sometimes leaked in advance in certain countries (Germany, for instance) for different reasons.

Market events include the release of economic data, speeches and testimony by government officials, interest rate decisions, and others.

Controlling Risk
Controlling risk is one of the most important ingredients of successful trading. While it is emotionally more appealing to focus on the upside of trading, every trader should know precisely how much he or she is willing to lose on each trade before cutting losses, and how much he or she is willing to lose in trading account before ceasing trading and re-evaluating.

Risk will essentially be controlled in two ways: by exiting losing trades before losses exceed your pre-determined maximum tolerance (or "cutting losses"), and by limiting the "leverage" or position size you trade for a given account size.

Cutting Losses
Too often, the beginning trader will be overly concerned about incurring losing trades. Trader therefore lets losses mount, with the "hope" that the market will turn around and the loss will turn into a gain.

Almost all successful trading strategies include a disciplined procedure for cutting losses. When a trader is down on a position, many emotions often come into play, making it difficult to cut losses at the right level. The best practice is to decide where losses will be cut before a trade is even initiated. This will assure the trader of the maximum amount he or she can expect to lose on the trade.

The other key element of risk control is overall account risk. In other words, a trader should know before start of trading endeavor how much of trading account he or she is willing to lose before ceasing trading and re-evaluating strategy. If you open an account with $2,000, are you willing to lose all $2,000? $1,000? As with risk control on individual trades, the most important discipline is to decide on a level and stick with it. Further information on the mechanics of limiting risk can be found in trading literature.

Saturday, December 31, 2005

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is research of market dynamics that is done mainly with the help of charts and with the purpose of forecasting future price development. Technical analysis comprises several approaches to the study of price movement which are interconnected in the framework of one harmonious theory. This type of analysis studies the price movement on the market by means of analyzing three market factors: price, volumes, and, in case of study of futures contracts’ market, of an open interest (number of open positions). Of these three factors the primary one for technical analysis is the prices, while the alterations in other factors are studies mainly in order to confirm the correctness of the identified price trend. This technical theory, just like any theory, has its core postulates.

Technical analysts base their research on the following three axioms:

Market movement considers everything
This is the most important postulate of technical analysis. It is crucial to understand it in order to grasp rightly the procedures of analysis. The gist of it is that any factor that influences the price of securities, whether economic, political, or psychological, has already been taken into account and reflected in the price chart. In other words, every price change is accompanied by a change in external factors. The main inference of this premise is the necessity to follow closely the price movements and analyze them. By means of analyzing price charts and multiple other indicators, a technical analyst comes to the point that the market itself shows to her/him the trend it will most likely follow.

This premise is in conflict with fundamental analysis where the attention is primarily paid to the study of factors, and later on, after the analysis of the factors, to conclusions as to the market trends are made. Thus, if the demand is higher than the supply, a fundamental analyst will come to the conclusion that the price will grow. Technical analyst, however, makes her/his conclusions in the opposite sequence: since the price has grown, it means the demand is higher than the supply.

The prices move with the trend
This assumption is the basis for all methods of technical analysis, as a market that moves in accordance with trends can be analyzed, unlike a chaotic market. The postulate that the price movement is a result of a trend has two effects. The first one implies that the current trend will most likely continue and will not reverse itself, thus, excluding disorderly chaotic movement of the market. The second one implies that the current trend will go on until the opposite trend sets in.

The history repeats itself
Technical analysis and studies of market dynamics are closely related to the studies of human psychology. Thus, the graphical price models identified and classified within the last hundred years depict core characteristics of the psychological state of the market. First of all, they show the moods currently prevailing in the market, whether bullish or bearish. Since these models worked in the past, we have reasons to suppose that they will work in the future, for they are based on human psychology which remains almost unchaged over years. We can reword the last postulate — the story repeats itself — in a slightly different way: the key to understanding the future lies in the studies of the past.

Support And Resistance
Think of prices for financial instruments as a result of a head-to-head battle between a bull (the buyer) and a bear (the seller). Bulls push prices higher, and bears lower them. The direction prices actually move shows who wins the battle.

Support is a level at which bulls (i.e., buyers) take control over the prices and prevent them from falling lower.

Resistance, on the other hand, is the point at which sellers (bears) take control of prices and prevent them from rising higher. The price at which a trade takes place is the price at which a bull and bear agree to do business. It represents the consensus of their expectations.

Support levels indicate the price where the most of investors believe that prices will move higher. Resistance levels indicate the price at which the most of investors feel prices will move lower.

But investor expectations change with the time, and they often do so abruptly. The development of support and resistance levels is probably the most noticeable and reoccurring event on price charts. The breaking through support/resistance levels can be triggered by fundamental changes that are above or below investor's expectations (e.g., changes in earnings, management, competition, etc.) or by self-fulfilling prophecy (investors buy as they see prices rise). The cause is not so significant as the effect: new expectations lead to new price levels. There are support/resistance levels, which are more emotional.

Supply and Demand
There is nothing mysterious about support and resistance: it is classic supply and demand. Remembering ’Econ 101’ class, supply/demand lines show what the supply and demand will be at a given price.

The supply line shows the quantity (i.e., the number of shares) that sellers are willing to supply at a given price. When prices increase, the quantity of sellers also increases as more investors are willing to sell at these higher prices. The demand line shows the number of shares that buyers are willing to buy at a given price. When prices increase, the quantity of buyers decreases as fewer investors are willing to buy at higher prices.

At any given price, a supply/demand chart shows how many buyers and sellers there are. In a free market, these lines are continually changing. Investor's expectations change, and so do the prices buyers and sellers feel are acceptable. A breakout above a resistance level is evidence of an upward shift in the demand line as more buyers become willing to buy at higher prices. Similarly, the failure of a support level shows that the supply line has shifted downward.

The foundation of most technical analysis tools is rooted in the concept of supply and demand. Charts of prices for financial instruments give us a superb view of these forces in action.

Traders’ Remorse
After a support/resistance level has been broken through, it is common for traders to ask temselves about to what extent new prices represent the facts. For example, after a breakout above a resistance level, buyers and sellers may both question the validity of the new price and may decide to sell. This creates a phenomenon that is referred to as "traders’ remorse": prices return to a support/resistance level following a price breakout.

The price action following this remorseful period is crucial. One of two things can happen: either the consensus of expectations will be that the new price is not warranted, in which case prices will move back to their previous level; or investors will accept the new price, in which case prices will continue to move in the direction of the breaking through.

In case number one, following traders’ remorse, the consensus of expectations is that a new higher price is not warranted, a classic "bull trap" (or false breakout) is created. For example, the prices broke through a certain resistance level (luring in a herd of bulls who expected prices to move higher), and then prices dropped back to below the resistance level leaving the bulls holding overpriced stock. Similar sentiment creates a bear trap. Prices drop below a support level long enough to get the bears to sell (or sell short) and then bounce back above the support level leaving the bears out of the market.

The other thing that can happen following traders’ remorse is that investors expectations may change causing the new price to be accepted. In this case, prices will continue to move in the direction of the penetration.

A good way to quantify expectations following a breakout is with the volume associated with the price breakout. If prices break through the support/resistance level with a large increase in volume and the traders’ remorse period is on relatively low volume, it implies that the new expectations will rule (a minority of investors are remorseful). Conversely, if the breakout is on moderate volume and the "remorseful" period is on increased volume, it implies that very few investor expectations have changed and a return to the original expectations (i.e., original prices) is warranted.

Resistance becomes Support
When a resistance level is successfully broken through, that level becomes a support level. Similarly, when a support level is successfully broken through, that level becomes a resistance level.

The reason for it is that a new "generation" of bulls appears, who refused to buy when prices were low. Now they are anxious to buy at any time the prices return to the previous level. Similarly, when prices drop below a support level, that level often becomes a resistance level that prices have a difficult time breaking through. When prices approach the previous support level, investors seek to limit their losses by selling.